由于中东冲突打击了全球需求前景,，中国 3 月份出口增速降至六个月低点，而进口则录得四年多来最强劲增长。
China的 export growth declined to a six-month low in March as the Middle East conflict hit global demand outlook, while imports logged their strongest growth in more than four years.
上个月以美元计算，出口同比增长 2.5%, 中国海关数据显示，周三, 未达到路透社调查的分析师 增长 8.6% 的中值预期,，且较今年前两个月 21.8% 的增幅有所减弱。
Exports rose at 2.5% in U.S. dollar terms last month from a year earlier, China customs data showed Wednesday, missing Reuters-polled analysts median estimate for an 8.6% growth, and weakening from the combined 21.8% surge in the first two months of the year.
3 月份进口同比猛增 27.8%,，这是自 2021 年 11 月以来最强劲的增长, 大幅超出预期的 11.2% 增幅,，并较前两个月的 19.8% 总和加速。
Imports surged 27.8% in March from a year ago, marking the strongest growth since November 2021, sharply beating expectations for a 11.2% rise, and accelerating from 19.8% in the prior two months combined.
由于农历新年, 农历新年, 是该国最大的节日,，中国公布了1 月和2 月的综合贸易数据。
China releases combined trade data for January and February due to fluctuations around the Lunar New Year, the country的 biggest holiday, which follows the agrarian calendar.
尽管与美国的紧张关系加剧且关税上升，这个世界第二大经济体的增长仍然依赖贸易。去年净出口约占中国经济的三分之一。
The world的 second-largest economy has remained reliant on trade for its growth despite rising tensions with the U.S. and higher tariffs. Net exports accounted for about a third of China的 economy last year.
能量冲击缓冲器
Energy shock buffer
虽然北京'的战略石油库存,、多元化的能源结构,和严格的价格控制缓解了油价飙升的冲击,，但依赖出口的经济仍然容易受到霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭导致的全球经济衰退的影响。
While Beijing的 strategic oil stockpiles, a diversified energy mix, and tight price controls have cushioned the blow from surging oil prices, the export-reliant economy remains vulnerable to a global economic downturn resulting from a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
在周二的新闻发布会上,王军,中国'海关副部长,表示，全球油价经历了"剧烈波动,"，造成了"复杂严峻的"贸易环境。
In a press briefing on Tuesday, Wang Jun, China的 customs vice minister, said that global oil prices have experienced "fierce fluctuation," creating a "complex and severe" trade environment.
"中东冲突导致的全球宏观前景的不确定性,可能对需求面造成压力,"出口紧张,张志伟, Pinpoint资产管理公司总裁兼首席经济学家表示。
"The uncertainty of the global macro outlook, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, likely weighed on the demand side," straining exports, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
尽管如此，, 中国的出口势头将比其他依赖出口的国家更好地免受能源成本上升和原材料短缺的影响, 张指出, 由于该国制造业的规模和效率。
That said, China的 export momentum will be more insulated from higher energy costs and raw material shortage than other export-reliant peers, Zhang noted, due to the scale and efficiency of the country的 manufacturing sector.
中国'的战略和商业石油库存,加上运输途中的石油库存,足以满足超过120天的净进口,，欧亚集团,中国总监Dan Wang,表示。她补充说，中国可以通过能源来源多元化以及回归煤炭,来很大程度上吸收冲击。
China的 strategic and commercial oil stocks, combined with barrels in transit, cover well over 120 days of net imports, said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. China can largely absorb the shock by diversifying its energy sources as well as by falling back on coal, she added.
根据 CNBC 对官方贸易数据的计算，3 月份中国 原油进口量同比下降,，按数量计算下降近 2.8%,，按美元计算下降约 4.4%,。根据 Wind 汇编的数据，天然气进口量同比下降 10.6% 至 818 万吨,，为 2022 年 10 月以来的最低水平,。
China的 crude imports fell in March from a year ago, down nearly 2.8% in terms of volume, and about 4.4% in U.S. dollar terms, according to a CNBC calculation of the official trade data. Natural gas imports declined 10.6% year on year to 8.18 million tons, the lowest level since October 2022, according to data compiled by Wind.
阅读更多中国新闻
Read more China news
贸易顺差下降
Declining trade surplus
截至 3 月底，中国 贸易顺差总额为 $2643 亿,，较去年同期缩小 3%，前两个月飙升至历史新高,，原因是全球供应趋紧导致进口额上涨。
China的 total trade surplus stood at $264.3 billion this year as of end-March, shrinking 3% from the same period last year after surging to a record high in the first two months, as import values swell on tighter global supply.
"中国无法将较高的能源价格完全转嫁给外国消费者,"，张,缩小了北京'的贸易顺差。
"China cannot pass through the higher energy prices completely to the foreign consumers," said Zhang, narrowing Beijing的 trade surplus.
自去年4月贸易紧张局势升级以来，中国'对美国的出口—每月都下降一倍—，3月份同比下降26.5%,，而进口则增长1%。
China的 exports to the U.S. — which have dropped by double for every month since trade tensions escalated in April last year — fell 26.5% in March from a year earlier, while imports rose 1%.
中国'与中东的贸易在经历了两个月的增长后，3月份出现下滑,海关发言人吕大良在周二的新闻发布会上表示,呼吁"a各方共同努力稳定并缓和冲突。"
China的 trade with the Middle East declined in March after two months of growth, customs spokesman Lyu Daliang said at a press briefing on Tuesday, calling for "a joint effort by all parties to stabilize and de-escalate the conflict."
与此同时，, 该国 上个月的稀土进口额增加了两倍多,，大豆进口量小幅增长了 20%。
Meanwhile, the country的 rare earth imports more than tripled in value last month, and soybean imports grew a modest 20% by volume.
然而, 因冲突而导致的大宗商品和能源价格上涨已开始影响中国制造商 投入成本, 威胁到公司 本来就微薄的利润。 3 月份该国出厂价格上涨 0.5%,，为三年多来首次攀升。
However, higher commodity and energy prices stemming from the conflict have started feeding into Chinese manufacturers input costs, threatening to weigh on firms already thin margins. Factory-gate prices in the country rose by 0.5% in March, climbing for the first time in more than three years.
由于国内需求仍然面临压力，消费者价格指数同比上涨 1%,，增幅低于预期。
The consumer price index rose by a slower-than-expected 1% from a year ago, as domestic demand remained under pressure.
该国将于周四公布第一季度国内生产总值。路透社调查的分析师估计，2025 年第四季度将增长 4.8%,，而 3 年低点为 4.5%。
The country is due to report its first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday. Analysts polled by Reuters estimate a 4.8% increase, compared to a 3-year low of 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
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