美国对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁不仅挤压了伊朗，还加大了对其在亚洲的两个最重要关系—印度和中国的压力。
The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only squeezing Iran but also ratcheting up pressure on two of its most consequential relationships in Asia — India and China.
伊朗大约 98% 的石油出口运往中国,，而唐纳德·特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平之间的峰会距离, 华盛顿 对伊朗的最大压力行动可能会破坏美国政府与北京精心培育的脆弱缓和关系。
With roughly 98% of Iranian oil exports bound for China, and a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping weeks away, Washington的 maximum pressure campaign on Iran risks destabilizing the fragile detente that the administration has carefully cultivated with Beijing.
印度, 与美国的关系复杂。, 越来越发现美国的政策与其经济利益相矛盾— 目前正在席卷其经济的能源冲击最为严重。
India, with its complicated ties with the U.S., is increasingly finding U.S. policy at odds with its economic interests — most acutely in the energy shock now rippling through its economy.
特朗普计划于 5 月中旬访问中国,，政府在最近几周多次表示，希望双边关系足够稳定，以使这场高风险会议保持在正轨上。
Trump is scheduled to visit China in mid-May, and the administration signaled repeatedly in recent weeks that it wants the bilateral relationship stable enough to keep the high-stakes meeting on track.
"伊朗冲突,特别是封锁,可能会颠覆这一努力,"亚洲协会政策研究所副总裁、前美国贸易谈判代表温迪·卡特勒,说。
"The Iran conflict, particularly the blockade, may upend this effort," said Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade negotiator.
摩擦的迹象已经出现。北京,对特朗普'的封锁保持了立场，但在很大程度上受到了克制,，周二的语气似乎变得更强硬。外交部发言人郭家坤批评此举"危险且不负责任,"，只会"加剧紧张局势。"
Signs of friction are already emerging. Beijing, which had kept its stance on Trump的 blockade largely restrained, appeared to harden its tone on Tuesday. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun slammed the move as "dangerous and irresponsible," and it will only "exacerbate tensions."
战争开始一个多月, 特朗普采取了熟悉的做法，威胁称如果北京向伊朗供应武器，他将向中国征收 50% 的关税。北京回击,，郭否认他所谓的"毫无根据的抹黑和恶意链接。"
More than a month into the war, Trump pulled a familiar playbook when he threatened to hit China with a 50% tariff if Beijing supplies weapons to Iran. Beijing pushed back, with Guo rejecting what he called "groundless smears and malicious linkage."
"美国任何企图以军售为借口加征关税的行为，中方都将坚决予以反制。,"郭说。
"China will resolutely retaliate with countermeasures against any U.S. attempt to use weapons sales as a pretext for additional tariffs," Guo said.
与此同时，印度, 面临着不同类型的压力。它对进口能源的严重依赖使其越来越容易受到冲突带来的经济影响。
India, in the meantime, is facing a different type of pressure. Its heavy reliance on imported energy has left it increasingly exposed to the economic fallout from the conflict.
本月早些时候, 印度在中断七年之后恢复购买伊朗石油和天然气,，并在美国临时豁免下确保其船只从德黑兰, 海峡安全通行。
Earlier this month, India resumed purchases of Iranian oil and gas after a seven-year hiatus, having secured safe passage for its ships through the strait from Tehran, under a temporary U.S. waiver.
印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪, 在周二与特朗普进行了近 40 分钟的通话后, 表示，两位领导人就中东冲突进行了"有益的意见" 交换，印度" 支持尽早缓和局势并恢复和平。"
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after a nearly 40-minute call with Trump on Tuesday, said the two leaders had a "useful exchange of views" on the Middle East conflict and that India "supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest."
咨询公司 Teneo 的南亚地缘政治风险顾问 Arpit Chaturvedi, 表示，即使华盛顿为印度制定特殊规定,，它们也不太可能满足新德里的天然气需求, 的全部规模。
Even if Washington carves out special provisions for India, they are unlikely to cover the full scale of New Delhi的 gas needs, said Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia geopolitical risk advisor at consultancy Teneo.
随着美国的封锁生效, 印度可能会停止从伊朗进口原油, 查图尔维迪称, 否则"我们将看到新德里和华盛顿之间的关系恶化。"
As the U.S. blockade takes hold, India will likely halt its crude imports from Iran, said Chaturvedi, otherwise "we will see the relationship between New Delhi and Washington deteriorate."
目前, "印度没有动力进一步冒险与华盛顿的关系,并使[it]接近无可挽回的地步," Chaturvedi补充道。
For now, "there is no incentive for India to risk its relationship with Washington any further, and bring [it] close to a point of no return," Chaturvedi added.
经受住风暴
Weathering the storm
然而，能源冲击, 对两个亚洲经济体的影响不同。
The impact of the energy shock, however, is hitting the two Asian economies differently.
由于其庞大的石油库存和多元化的能源结构，中国 27 面临的能源冲击仍然比其他主要经济体更容易控制。
China的 exposure to the energy shock remains more manageable than that of other major economies due to its massive oil stockpiles and diversified energy mix.
伊朗流入中国的规模仍突显出德黑兰27的石油贸易在结构上仍然完好无损。海事情报公司 Windward 估计，截至周二,，海上约有 1.577 亿桶伊朗原油，其中近 98% 运往中国。
The scale of Iranian flows still reaching China also underscores how structurally intact Tehran的 oil trade remains. Maritime intelligence firm Windward estimates roughly 157.7 million barrels of Iranian crude were at sea as of Tuesday, with nearly 98% of them destined for China.
中国'的战略和商业石油库存,加上运输途中的石油库存,足以满足超过120天的净进口,，欧亚集团,中国总监Dan Wang,表示。 "如果仅损失伊朗石油,，中国可以通过多元化转向其他来源并更多地回归煤炭来吸收冲击,"她补充道。
China的 strategic and commercial oil stocks, combined with barrels in transit, cover well over 120 days of net imports, said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. "If only Iranian barrels are lost, China can absorb the shock by diversifying to other sources and falling back more to coal," she added.
据报道，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周二指责中国在冲突期间是"不可靠的全球伙伴",，批评北京囤积石油供应而不是缓解全球紧缩。
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday reportedly accused China of being an "unreliable global partner" during the conflict, criticizing Beijing for hoarding oil supplies instead of easing the global crunch.
相比之下，印度, 没有类似的缓冲。经济学人智库高级经济学家 Sumedha Dasgupta, 表示，作为世界的 第三大石油进口国,，印度的 净流入量占 GDP, 的 3.5%，使其成为最容易受到封锁的经济体, 之一。
India, by contrast, has no comparable buffer. As the world的 third-largest oil importer, India的 net inflows amount to 3.5% of GDP, leaving it among the most vulnerable economies to the blockade, said Sumedha Dasgupta, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
由于石油供应不足 60 天,，如果中东的石油供应进一步受到干扰，新德里将面临更艰难的着陆。
With oil supplies covering less than 60 days, New Delhi faces a far harder landing if Middle East flows are disrupted further.
对于家庭和商业机构的主要烹饪和取暖燃料液化石油气,来说，情况尤其严重。印度没有任何有意义的战略液化石油气储备，如果进口停滞，炼油厂和分销商持有的库存只能满足两到三周的需求, Dasgupta 表示。
The situation is particularly acute for liquefied petroleum gas, a key cooking and heating fuel for households and commercial establishments. India holds no meaningful strategic LPG reserves and stockpiles held by refiners and distributors could cover only two to three weeks of demand if imports stall, Dasgupta said.
印度 27% 的液化石油气进口几乎全部来自中东，约占去年需求的 66% 。
Nearly all of India的 LPG imports came mainly from the Middle East and accounted for about 66% of demand last year.
误算的风险
Risk of miscalculation
分析师表示，北京和新德里采取强烈反击措施（可能会迅速恶化与美国的关系）的可能性仍然很低。, 分析师表示。
The odds for a sharp countermove from Beijing and New Delhi that could quickly sour their ties with the U.S. also remain low, analysts say.
Wang表示，封锁—类似于"解放日"关税—，是非歧视性的，适用于受制裁伊朗原油,的所有买家，而不是针对中国,。 "北京将在外交层面提出抗议,，但不太可能反应过度而实施重大报复。"
The blockade — similar to the "Liberation Day" tariffs — is non-discriminatory and applies to all buyers of sanctioned Iranian crude, rather than singling out China, said Wang. "Beijing will protest at the diplomatic level, but is unlikely to overreact with major retaliation."
与此同时，一旦华盛顿'的豁免到期,，印度,可能会将能源进口从伊朗转移到俄罗斯,、美国,、澳大利亚,和其他供应商, Chaturvedi说。
India, meanwhile, is likely to shift energy imports away from Iran once Washington的 waiver expires, turning instead to Russia, the U.S., Australia, and other suppliers, Chaturvedi said.
"莫迪不太可能跨越特朗普划定的任何红线," 他补充道。
"Modi is unlikely to cross any red lines drawn by Trump," he added.
尽管如此，任何误判或海上直接对抗都可能导致外交姿态迅速恶化，并有可能危及华盛顿和北京之间脆弱的缓和稳定。
Still, any miscalculation or direct confrontation at sea could tip the diplomatic posturing into rapid deterioration and risk jeopardizing the fragile stability in the detente between Washington and Beijing.
"美国拦截中国船只可能会成为重大事件, [as] 在这种情况下，中国将坚决对抗美国," 欧亚集团, 中国业务负责人 David Meale, 表示，两国关系将处于与现在完全不同的境地。
"A U.S. interception of a Chinese vessel would likely become a major incident, [as] China will make a point of standing up to the U.S. in a situation like this," said David Meale, head of China practice at Eurasia Group, leaving the relationship in a fundamentally different place than where they are now.
周二,，在特朗普'的海上封锁生效后，一艘与中国有联系的美国制裁油轮驶出霍尔木兹海峡，进入阿曼湾,。
On Tuesday, a U.S.-sanctioned tanker linked to China sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz and into the Gulf of Oman, after Trump的 naval blockade came into effect.
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