中国的汽车市场似乎将迎来自2021,以来最糟糕的一年，因为继2025年销量创历史新高后，消费者对乘用车的需求大幅下降。
China的 car market appears to be headed for its worst year since 2021, as consumer demand for passenger vehicles tumbles following record-high sales in 2025.
在上半年乘用车销量下降 20.2%, 之后，中国乘用车协会将 2026 年全年零售额预测从之前同比持平的预测下调至下降 14%。
After passenger vehicle sales fell by 20.2% in the first half of the year, the China Passenger Car Association lowered its 2026 full-year retail sales projection to a decline of 14% from an earlier forecast of flat year-on-year sales.
预计 2026 年底最终交付量为 2040 万台,，低于去年创纪录的 2370 万台。目前上半年累计销量为870万辆。
It is forecasting a final delivery volume of 20.4 million units at the end of 2026, down from a record 23.7 million units last year. Cumulative sales for the first half of the year currently stand at 8.7 million units.
中信里昂证券,香港/中国工业研究部主管肖峰,预计前景比CPCA的:更黯淡，他预计累计汽车销量将同比下降20%,，而协会的全年预测下降14%。冯对新能源汽车(NEVs)（例如电动和混合动力汽车以及货车,）保持稍微乐观的态度，认为新能源汽车销量同比下降5%至6%。
Xiao Feng, head of Hong Kong/China Industrials Research at Citic CLSA, expects a bleaker outlook than CPCA的: he projects cumulative auto sales will fall 20% year-on-year, compared to the association的 full-year forecast decline of 14%. Feng remains slightly more optimistic for new energy vehicles (NEVs) such as electric and hybrid cars and vans, seeing NEV sales declining 5% to 6% year-on-year.
"今年将继续是残酷的一年,"Sino Auto Insights创始人屠乐告诉CNBC,，由于原始设备制造商努力抓住摇摇欲坠的需求，竞争加剧。
"This is going to continue to be a brutal year," Sino Auto Insights founder Tu Le told CNBC, citing increased competition as original equipment manufacturers fight to seize faltering demand.
随着消费者需求下滑，燃料成本上升和电动汽车补贴缩减导致中国汽车制造商'陷入困境。
Rising fuel costs and a pullback in electric vehicle subsidies have contributed to the struggles of Chinese automakers as consumer demand slides.
根据中国'国家统计局,的数据，6月份,交通能源成本同比飙升15.3%，导致内燃机(ICE)汽车需求锐减。 6月份内燃机汽车零售量同比下降39%—，其中纯汽油车型下降42%—，占当月乘用车销量总降幅的78%。
Transportation energy costs soared 15.3% year-over-year in June, according to data from China的 National Bureau of Statistics, driving the collapse in demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Retail sales of ICE vehicles fell 39% year-on-year in June — with pure gasoline models down 42% — accounting for 78% of the total decline in passenger vehicle sales that month.
北京 取消新能源汽车补贴, 此前刺激了消费者的胃口, 抑制了 2026 年的汽车需求。"政策仅使需求左右," Feng 告诉 CNBC, 指出，迄今为止汽车销售的低迷" 可能会抵消去年的前期需求。"
Beijing的 pullback of NEV subsidies, which had previously stimulated consumer appetite, has tempered demand for cars in 2026. "Policy only moves demand around," Feng told CNBC, noting that the lackluster vehicle sales seen so far "could be paying back the frontloaded demand from last year."
Chinese automakers are being squeezed by rising raw material and component costs, on the other end.
CPCA 秘书长崔东树表示，电池相关投入成本 — 包括锂和存储芯片 — 的投入成本急剧上升,，导致 2026 年 1 月至 5 月期间全行业销售利润率暴跌至 3.4%,，而行业利润同比下降 20%,。 6月份乘用车价格同比下降超过1%,，进一步缩小了本已微薄的利润率。
Battery-related input costs — including those for lithium and memory chips — are rising sharply, contributing to an industry-wide plunge in sales profit margins to 3.4% for the period between January and May 2026, while industry profits fell 20% year-on-year, according to CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu. Passenger vehicle prices fell by more than 1% year-on-year in June, further narrowing already-slim profit margins.
Feng 预计，到 2030 年，微薄的利润将导致市场重组,，将中国 分散的电动汽车市场整合为七八个主要参与者。
Feng expects the razor-thin margins to lead to a market shakedown, consolidating China的 fragmented EV market into seven or eight major players by 2030.
他预测，美国汽车制造商将无法在竞争激烈的中国汽车市场, 中生存下来，而国内制造商比亚迪, 吉利和零跑汽车, 德国的 大众和日本的 丰田将跻身其中。
He predicts that American automakers won't survive the fiercely competitive Chinese car market, leaving domestic makers BYD, Geely and Leapmotor, Germany的 Volkswagen and Japan的 Toyota among those left standing.
但尽管大众汽车在中国转向电动汽车,，该汽车制造商报告的交付数据显示，2026 年上半年同比下降了 25.9%。
But even as Volkswagen pivots into electric cars in China, delivery figures reported by the automaker show a 25.9% year-on-year drop for the first half of 2026.
保持规模销售对于目前电动汽车竞赛中的生存至关重要, 分析师表示。
Maintaining sales at scale is crucial for survival at this point in the EV race, analysts say.
冯估计，中国的汽车制造商需要实现年销量500,000辆才能实现盈亏平衡, 100万辆才能实现可持续利润,和200万辆才能实现充分的规模经济。达不到这些数字的小型企业将被 " 大部分排除在 [the] 市场之外。"
Feng estimates that a carmaker in China needs to achieve annual sales of 500,000 units to break even, 1million units for sustainable profits, and 2 million achieve full economies of scale. Smaller players who do not measure up to these figures will be "largely out of [the] market."
国内主要汽车制造商,中，比亚迪公布2026年上半年销量180万辆,，吉利和零跑汽车分别以140万辆和356,000的交付量落后。对于外国公司, 大众集团报告同期的交付量为 973,000,，而丰田公司则报告 1 月至 5 月期间的交付量为 579,000。
Among the major domestic automakers, BYD reported 1.8 million sales in the first half of 2026, with Geely and Leapmotor trailing behind at 1.4 million and 356,000 deliveries respectively. For foreign companies, Volkswagen Group reported 973,000 deliveries during the same period, while Toyota posted 579,000 deliveries between January and May.
出口激增预计将推动明年'的复苏
Export surge expected to fuel next year的 recovery
尽管专家对下半年行业前景仍持悲观, Feng 预计，2027 年经济低迷将迎来反弹。
While experts remain pessimistic about the outlook for the industry into the second half of the year, Feng expects the downturn to give way to a rebound in 2027.
"[We] 预计明年的需求会好得多。" 他说。 Feng 将中国的 汽车市场描述为具有固有的周期性—，因为车队老化且车主希望更换车辆, 销售预计将恢复。
"[We] expect much better demand next year." he said. Feng described China的 auto market as inherently cyclical — as vehicle fleets age and owners look to replace vehicles, sales are expected to recover.
"随着[a]更好的经济前景,甚至更好的增长[在电动汽车市场]可以预期,"冯说,重申了他对明年市场反弹的信心。
"With [a] better economic outlook, even better growth [in the EV market] could be expected," Feng said, reaffirming his confidence in a market rebound next year.
随着中国汽车制造商利用海外市场不断上涨的燃料成本，强劲的出口, 可能会推动这种复苏。
That recovery could get a boost from strong exports, as Chinese automakers capitalize on rising fuel costs in overseas markets.
根据CPCA的数据，6月份乘用车出口总量环比增长11.5%，同比增长82.3%,，达到877,000辆,。
Total passenger vehicle exports grew 11.5% month-on-month and surged 82.3% year-on-year, reaching 877,000 units in June, according to CPCA.
中东, 战争导致全球运输中断和燃油价格飙升, 是"推动买家购买电动汽车的主要动机之一", Lu 说。
The war in the Middle East, which has resulted in shipping disruptions and soaring fuel prices worldwide, is "one of the major motivations" driving buyers toward EVs, Lu said.
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