中国第二季度经济增速为 2022 年第四季度以来最弱,，这强化了对政策刺激的呼声，因为投资加速下滑加剧了增长压力,，而消费仍然低迷。
China的 economy in the second quarter expanded at its weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022, reinforcing calls for policy stimulus as an accelerating slide in investments deepened the strain on growth, while consumption stayed subdued.
4 月至 6 月期间, 国内生产总值增长率为 4.3%, 国家统计局的数据显示周三, 缺少经济学家 路透调查, 预测的 4.5% 增长率，并从第一季度的 5% 放缓。
Gross domestic product growth came in at 4.3% in the April to June period, data from the National Statistics Bureau showed Wednesday, missing economists forecast for 4.5% growth in a Reuters poll, and slowing from 5% in the first quarter.
第二季度增长低于北京 4.5% 至 5%, 的全年增长目标范围，这是几十年来最不雄心勃勃的目标,，因为与包括美国和欧盟在内的贸易伙伴, 关系紧张，而且国内需求低迷。
That second-quarter growth came below Beijing的 full-year growth target range of 4.5% to 5%, the least ambitious goal in decades, amid tensions with trade partners, including the U.S. and the European Union, and sluggish domestic demand.
鉴于令人失望的增长, Tianchen Xu, 经济学人智库, 高级经济学家, 预计第三季度将加大刺激措施, 包括降息以刺激投资需求。
Given the disappointing growth, Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit, expects stimulus measures to be ramped up in the third quarter, including a policy rate cut to stimulate investment demand.
包括房地产开发和基础设施项目,在内的城市固定资产投资,前六个月同比下降5.7%,，低于路透社调查中预期的下降4.9%。
Urban fixed-asset investment, including real estate development and infrastructure projects, declined 5.7% in the first six months from a year earlier, worse than expectations for a 4.9% drop in a Reuters poll.
徐将投资急剧下滑的原因归咎于地方政府将资源用于债务重组以及符合条件的项目短缺。 "加大基础设施投资将是稳增长的重点。"
Xu attributed the steepening investment slump to local governments channeling resources into debt restructuring and a shortage of eligible projects in the pipeline. "Boosting infrastructure investment will be a key focus for stabilizing growth."
穆迪的 Analytics 的经济学家 Sarah Tan, 表示，北京'控制产能过剩和结束激烈价格战的行动也将在短期内对私人投资造成压力,。
Beijing的 campaign to rein in excess capacity and end bruising price wars will also weigh on private investment in the near term, said Sarah Tan, economist at Moody的 Analytics.
根据官方数据，房地产,基础设施和制造业投资分别大幅下降18%, 2.4%和1.2%,。
The investment in real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing plunged 18%, 2.4% and 1.2%, respectively, according to the official data.
6 月份, 中国的零售额增长了 1%,，较上个月下降 0.6% 有所反弹，超过了经济学家 预测的下降 0.1%。受需求不温不火和商家'大幅折扣拖累，5 月份零售额出现自 2022 年末以来首次月度下降,。
In June, China的 retail sales grew 1%, rebounding from a 0.6% drop in the prior month and exceeding economists forecast for a 0.1% fall. Retail sales in May posted their first monthly decline since late 2022, dragged down by tepid demand and merchants steep discounting.
6 月份工业产出同比增长 5.3%,，强于预期的 4.7% 增长,，并较 5 月份的 4.5% 增长速度加快。
Industrial output expanded 5.3% in June from a year ago, stronger than the forecast 4.7% growth, and gaining pace from 4.5% expansion in May.
中国经济面临着供需失衡加剧的问题。尽管消费和私人投资因房地产长期低迷和能源价格波动而减弱，但与全球人工智能投资热潮相关的强劲工业生产和出口继续推动总体增长,。
Chinese economy has grappled with a deepening supply-demand imbalance. Robust industrial production and exports tied to the global AI investment boom continue to power headline growth, even as consumption and private investment weakens amid a prolonged property downturn and volatile energy prices.
统计局指出"供给过剩与需求低迷"严重失衡,，敦促政策制定者加大"逆周期和跨周期调节力度。"
The statistics bureau noted "acute" imbalance between excess supply and sluggish demand, urging policymakers to step up "counter- and cross-cyclical adjustments."
去年, 城市投资数十年来首次出现下滑,，较上年同期, 下降3.8%，并且比前五个月的4.1% 收缩幅度更大,，原因是长期的房地产低迷和对地方政府 借贷的更严格限制阻碍了中国的传统增长动力之一。
Urban investment slumped for the first time in decades last year, falling 3.8% from a year earlier, and steepened from a 4.1% contraction in the first five months, as a prolonged property downturn and tighter constraints on local governments borrowing hampered one of China的 traditional growth drivers.
清华大学经济学教授李稻葵,表示，投资回调的力度是"前所未有的,"。在本周早些时候的宏观经济研讨会上,，前中国央行顾问呼吁今年将政府借款大幅增加一倍以上'计划发行12万亿元人民币($1.7万亿)新债。
The intensity of pullback in investment has been "unprecedented," said Li Daokui, a professor of economics at Tsinghua University. Speaking at a macroeconomics seminar earlier this week, the former China central bank advisor called for a substantial expansion in government borrowing to more than double this year的 planned 12 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion) in new debt issuance.
对于经济放缓是否会迫使北京采取刺激措施，经济学家存在分歧。
Economists are divided over whether the slowdown will force Beijing的 hand on stimulus.
Pinpoint Asset Management, 总裁兼首席经济学家张志伟, 表示，总体增长疲弱不太可能在未来几个月引发有意义的政策转变,，因为第一季度的强劲表现和强劲的出口使年度目标触手可及。
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the weaker headline growth is unlikely to prompt a meaningful policy shift in the coming months, with a strong first quarter and resilient exports keeping the annual target within reach.
Invesco 全球市场策略师 David Chao, 表示，好于预期的零售销售和工业产出将为决策者在近期刺激措施上提供 " 更多回旋余地",。
Better-than-expected retail sales and industrial output would give policymakers "more wiggle room" on near-term stimulus, said David Chao, global market strategist at Invesco.
出口图纸推迟
Exports drawing pushback
出口仍然是原本降温的经济中的亮点,，因为全球人工智能的建设有助于抵消中东冲突的不利影响。
Exports remain the bright spot in an otherwise cooling economy, as the global AI buildout helps offset the headwinds from Middle East conflict.
中国 6 月份的出口增长超出预期,，在芯片, 计算机和零部件, 以及电力设备的需求推动下，创下自 2021 年末, 以来最强劲的增长。
China的 export growth beat expectations in June, clocking the strongest rise since late 2021, powered by demand for chips, computers and parts, and power equipment.
Chao, 表示，技术相关进口的激增也表明国内人工智能基础设施周期正在深化，汽车和消费品增加了动力。
Surging tech-related imports also point to a deepening AI infrastructure cycle at home, said Chao, with autos and consumer goods adding momentum.
出口实力, 然而, 正在使与贸易伙伴的关系变得紧张。据麦格理, 首席中国经济学家 Larry Hu, 称，受机械和汽车出货量的推动，中国 对欧盟的顺差在上半年扩大了 24%,。
The export strength, however, is straining ties with trade partners. China的 surplus with the European Union widened 24% in the first half, according to Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, driven by machinery and vehicle shipments.
"尽管进行了三个月的贸易休战,，不断增长的顺差使中国的风险–欧盟贸易冲突上升,"胡说。
"Despite a three-month trade truce, the growing surplus keeps the risk of a China–EU trade conflict elevated," Hu said.
收入紧缩
Income squeeze
据摩根士丹利称，反映出劳动力市场, 的两倍速增长，拥有海外收入的公司的员工比专注于国内的公司, 的员工对自己的就业前景更加乐观。
Reflecting the two-speed growth in labor market, workers at companies with overseas revenue were more upbeat about their job prospects than those at domestically focused firms, according to Morgan Stanley.
减薪仍然是家庭 最关心的问题, 银行估计, 将未来 12 个月的收入增长从之前预测的 5.8% 下调至 5% 左右。
Pay cuts remained households top concern, the bank estimates, lowering income growth over the next 12 months to about 5% from its previous forecast of 5.8%.
6月份，中国城镇失业率,（不包括离开城市进入农村,）稳定在5%。领导层的目标是在未来五年内将失业率控制在 5.5% 以下。
Chinese urban unemployment rate, which excludes those who leave cities for rural areas, remained steady at 5% in June. The leadership is targeting an unemployment rate of less than 5.5% over the next five-year period.
Li的团队, 进行的另一项调查统计了过去两年失业且不再纳入官方劳动力调查, 的人数，结果显示中国的总体失业率高达 10.2%。大约 2400 万长期失业者中，一半以上年龄在 16 岁至 24 岁之间。
A separate survey conducted by Li的 team, that counted people who have been jobless for the past two years and are no longer covered in the official labor force survey, showed China的 broad unemployment rate at a much-higher 10.2%. More than half of the roughly 24 million long-term unemployed are aged 16 to 24.
青年失业率一直是官方统计数据的一个特别痛点。在青年失业率飙升至创纪录的 21.3%, 后，北京于 2023 年停止了这一统计，几个月后又根据新的计算方法以较低的比率恢复了这一统计。
Youth joblessness has been a particular sore point for official statistics. Beijing had discontinued the youth unemployment rate in 2023 after it surged to a record 21.3%, before reinstating it months later under a new methodology and at a lower rate.
5月份青年失业率降至15.6%,，为近一年来最低水平。
The youth unemployment rate fell to 15.6% in May, the lowest level in nearly a year.
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