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Hi, this is Evelyn, writing to you from Beijing. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what I'm seeing and hearing from local businesses.
经过今年的动荡开局,，公司所指望的确定性是什么,，以及什么将推动夏季过后的经济?
After a tumultuous start to the year, what certainties are companies counting on, and what will drive the economy beyond the summer months?
大故事
The big story
During a brief trip to Shenzhen last week, I found the airport abnormally busy for an early weekday morning.人们蜂拥而至，而多面墙上贴满的广告则宣传各种人工智能工具及其技术能力。
During a brief trip to Shenzhen last week, I found the airport abnormally busy for an early weekday morning. People rushed about, while ads plastered across multiple walls promoted various artificial intelligence tools and their technical capabilities.
过去六个月，人工智能热潮及其经济影响席卷了中国大部分地区。 From AI chatbot wars during the Lunar New Year in February, to the subsequent OpenClaw AI agent craze, to widespread AI-generated videos capturing the public imagination and, finally, stock market gains, the technology is forming an ever-greater part of life in China today.
The AI frenzy and its economic implications have washed over much of China in the last six months. From AI chatbot wars during the Lunar New Year in February, to the subsequent OpenClaw AI agent craze, to widespread AI-generated videos capturing the public imagination and, finally, stock market gains, the technology is forming an ever-greater part of life in China today.
That的 not to mention a policy back-and-forth in the U.S. that briefly shut down Anthropic的 Mythos and Fable models, and helped send newly listed Knowledge Atlas skyrocketing into the trillion-Hong Kong dollar market cap club. The Chinese company, also known as Z.ai, released the open-source GLM 5.2 model that held the top performance ranking in coding while Fable was offline.
Critically, the gains in tech stocks, which account for some 30% of the mainland China A-share market, are helping put a floor under struggling property markets in major Chinese cities, said Nomura的 chief China economist Ting Lu.
更多 IPO, 包括周三在香港举行的自动驾驶公司 Momenta, 已在日历上, 呼应了美国对大牌上市的兴奋。
More IPOs, including that of autonomous driving company Momenta in Hong Kong on Wednesday, are on the calendar, echoing the excitement in the U.S. over big-name listings.
But are animal spirits running too high? The summer holidays, which officially began in China on July 1, may just mark the lull before the storm.
上半年最受期待的事件是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普'的北京之行,，该行因伊朗战争而推迟，但于5月如期进行。
The most-anticipated event of the first half of the year was U.S. President Donald Trump的 trip to Beijing, which went ahead in May after being delayed by the Iran war.
Trump的 visit helped preserve a thaw in U.S.-China tensions. U.S. businesses rushed to ramp up orders from Chinese suppliers, before a stricter tariff regime is set to start later this month.
However, a pre-set schedule may keep relations stable for a while longer.
中国国家主席习近平将于九月下旬访问美国。 After the U.S. midterm elections, Trump and Xi are expected to meet in November during the APEC summit in Shenzhen.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is due in the U.S. in late September. After the U.S. midterm elections, Trump and Xi are expected to meet in November during the APEC summit in Shenzhen.
With four months to go, the city was already preparing for the event, with promotional banners and whispers of tech showcases. It is the Silicon Valley of China, after all.
Tourist season
Meanwhile, around 60 million more railway trips are expected this summer compared to last year, among 1.01 billion overall passenger journeys, according to Chinese state media. Social media posts evoke excitement over sold-out summer events such as Bilibili World that features merchandise based on characters popular on the streaming and gaming company的 app.
It的 less clear whether that的 enough to reverse a slump in retail sales.
"假期支出仍受到劳动力市场疲软的限制,"摩根士丹利'首席中国经济学家Robin Xing及其团队在6月28日的报告中写道。
"Holiday spending is still constrained by a weak labor market," Morgan Stanley的 chief China economist Robin Xing and a team wrote in a June 28 report.
"We expect Beijing to step up a capex-centric fiscal rollout starting in 3Q, primarily focused on Al and power grids rather than consumption," the analysts said.
China的 parade of tech achievements will pick up in the interim.
据亚洲集团合伙人乔治·陈 (George Chen) 称，上海将于 7 月中旬主办国家组织的世界人工智能大会,，预计习近平将在会上发表讲话,。活动组织者没有回应置评请求。 Later in August, Beijing holds its World Robot Conference.
Shanghai hosts the state-organized World AI conference in mid-July, at which Xi is expected to speak, according to The Asia Group Partner George Chen. The event organizers did not respond to a request for comment. Later in August, Beijing holds its World Robot Conference.
"The overall AI growth story remains intact and, while the narrative has evolved over the past couple of years, we are still in the early days of the AI revolution," said Perris Lee, head of equity capital markets for Asia Pacific at Mergermarket, noting how robust listing activity in Hong Kong reflects the fact that "investors continue to be enthusiastic."
"Geopolitical tensions remain a key risk," Lee said. "目前尚不清楚我们是否已经看到油价上涨的全面影响,以及持续的冲突和更广泛的地缘政治不确定性可能会继续影响今年下半年的投资者情绪和资本市场活动。"
"Geopolitical tensions remain a key risk," Lee said. "It is still unclear whether we have seen the full impact of higher oil prices, and ongoing conflicts and broader geopolitical uncertainty could continue to affect investor sentiment and capital markets activity in the second half of the year."
As the money pours into AI and the rest of the economy tries to get a lift from exports and tourism, there的 a lingering question of when the music will stop.
需要知道
Need to know
Europe wants to rebalance trade with Beijing, but can't quit Chinese air conditioners
就在历史性热浪促使当地人争相购买中国制造的空调之际，布鲁塞尔计划将10月对华贸易逆差减少,。 Meanwhile, Beijing widens Japan export curbs, targeting drone makers, nuclear firms and defense institutes.
Brussels aims to reduce its trade deficit with China by October, just as a historic heat wave sends locals rushing to buy Chinese-made air conditioners. Meanwhile, Beijing widens Japan export curbs, targeting drone makers, nuclear firms and defense institutes.
阿里巴巴旗下蚂蚁集团在 18 个月内完成十几笔交易，进军人形机器人领域
Alibaba-affiliate Ant Group rushes into humanoid robots with a dozen deals in 18 months
蚂蚁集团在其最新板块,领域领投了Zeroth的5亿元($73.58百万)融资。 In the stock market, short interest in Pop Mart climbed to 12.67% of shares outstanding as of June 30, up from 11.3% in April, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.尽管自 4 月份迄今的低点以来已上涨 8%，但该 仍是 27%。
For its latest sector bet, Ant Group led a 500 million yuan ($73.58 million) funding round in Zeroth. In the stock market, short interest in Pop Mart climbed to 12.67% of shares outstanding as of June 30, up from 11.3% in April, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. That的 despite 8% gains since its year-to-date low in April.
Xi touts China Communist Party的 global influence in speech marking 105th anniversary
The Chinese Communist Party has "deeply changed the trend and trajectory of the world的 development through relentless struggle," Xi Jinping said, according to a CNBC translation from Mandarin.
Coming up
July 9: CPI, PPI for June
July 10 - 12: Bilibili World in Shanghai
July 14: China trade data for June
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