中国'的经济在第一季度积聚动力,，因为强劲的出口抵消了疲软的国内消费,，尽管伊朗战争引发的能源冲击可能会削弱全球需求并削弱这一势头。
China的 economy gathered steam in the first quarter, as robust exports offset sluggish domestic consumption, though an energy shock stemming from the Iran war threatens to sap global demand and undercut that momentum.
截至 3 月份, 的三个月内，国内生产总值增长了 5%, 国家统计局的数据显示，周四, 增速较上一季度的 4.5% 有所加快，超过了经济学家 在路透调查中预测的 4.8% 增长。
Gross domestic product grew 5% in the three months to March, data from the National Statistics Bureau showed Thursday, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter and exceeding economists forecast for a 4.8% growth in a Reuters poll.
北京方面已将今年的增长目标下调至 4.5% 至 5%, 的范围，这是自 20 世纪 90 年代初期以来有记录以来最不雄心勃勃的目标,，默认了需求放缓以及与美国的贸易紧张局势挥之不去。
Beijing had lowered its growth target this year to a range of 4.5% to 5%, the least ambitious goal on record going back to the early 1990s, in a tacit acknowledgement of demand slowdown and lingering trade tensions with the U.S.
"要看到外部环境更加复杂多变,"统计局在声明中称,警告"供给旺弱需求"严重失衡。"
"We should be aware that the external environment is becoming more complex and volatile," the statistics bureau said in a statement, warning of "acute" imbalance between "strong supply and weak demand."
另外, 城市固定资产投资,（包括房地产和基础设施,）第一季度同比增长1.7%, 低于路透调查中1.9% 增长的预期。房地产持续低迷,，截至 3 月份，今年投资下降 11.2%,，比去年同期的 9.9% 下降幅度更大。
Separately, urban fixed-asset investment, including in real estate and infrastructure, climbed 1.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier, missing expectations for a 1.9% growth in a Reuters poll. Real estate downturn persisted, with investment falling 11.2% this year as of March, steepening from a 9.9% drop during the same period last year.
3 月份, 中国 零售额同比增长 1.7%,，增速较 2 月份假期推动的 2.8% 增速有所放缓，低于经济学家 预测的 2.3% 增速。上个月工业产出同比增长 5.7%,，强于分析师 预期的 5.5% 增长,，也高于 2 月份的 6.3% 增长。
In March, China的 retail sales grew 1.7% from a year earlier, slowing from a holiday-boosted 2.8% increase in February and undershooting economists forecast for a 2.3% growth. Industrial output expanded 5.7% last month from a year ago, stronger than analysts expectations for a 5.5% rise, and compared with 6.3% expansion in February.
受农历新年需求和刺激消费升级的政府补贴计划的提振，本季度零售销售表现出强劲, 智库世界大型企业联合会, 首席经济学家张雨涵, 表示，增加了通信设备, 黄金和珠宝方面的支出。
Retail sales showed pockets of strength in the quarter, buoyed by Lunar New Year demand and government subsidy programs that spurred consumer upgrades, said Yuhan Zhang, principal economist at think tank The Conference Board, boosting spending in communication equipment, gold and jewelry.
与此同时, 汽车销量同比下降, 这表明消费者在近期油价波动的情况下对大额消费保持谨慎, 张补充道。
Meanwhile, auto sales declined from a year earlier, signaling that consumers remained cautious with big-ticket consumption amid recent swings in oil prices, Zhang added.
供需失衡依然存在
Demand-supply imbalance persists
经济学人智库高级经济学家徐天辰, 表示，2026 年初的弹性整体增长减少了政策制定者加倍实施财政刺激或货币宽松, 的必要性，政策重点转向维持私人消费和投资,。 "增长仍然与出口不平衡," Xu补充道。
Resilient overall growth at the start of 2026 has reduced the need for policymakers to double down on fiscal stimulus or monetary easing, with policy focus shifting to sustaining private consumption and investment, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit. "Growth remains lopsided towards exports," Xu added.
第一季度, 工业生产同比增长 6.1%, 超过了零售销售 季度增长率 2.4%,，这突显了尽管消费滞后，制造业 仍作为经济的主要增长引擎继续占据主导地位。
For the first quarter, industrial production jumped 6.1% year on year, outpacing retail sales quarterly growth of 2.4%, underscoring manufacturing的 continued dominance as the economy的 primary growth engine even as consumption lags.
根据 EUI，第一季度, 中国的出口以美元计算同比增长 14.7%,，这是自 2022 年初以来的最快增速,。
In the first quarter, China的 exports grew 14.7% from a year earlier in terms of U.S. dollars, the fastest pace since early 2022, according to EUI.
也就是说, 随着中东冲突的加剧，增长已经停滞。
That said, that growth has stalled as the Middle East conflict rages on.
作为世界的最大的石油进口国和严重依赖出口的经济体,，中国很容易受到石油冲击的影响，的已经放缓了贸易,，推高了工厂成本,，并使今年剩余时间的前景黯淡。
As the world的 largest oil importer and a heavily export-reliant economy, China is vulnerable to an oil shock that的 already slowing trade, pushing up factory costs, and darkening the outlook for the rest of the year.
然而，从伊朗等国家通过霍尔木兹海峡运往中国的,石油运输量仅占中国'能源消费总量,的6.6%，远低于其他亚洲国家。
However, oil shipments from Iran and other countries headed to China through the Strait of Hormuz account for just 6.6% of China的 total energy consumption, far lower than other Asian countries.
中国的统计局,副局长毛盛勇,周四对记者表示，油价上涨并未对国内经济产生重大影响,，但表示希望中东局势能够稳定下来。
Mao Shengyong, deputy commissioner of China的 Statistics Bureau, told reporters Thursday that the oil price increase has not had a major impact on the domestic economy, but said he hoped the situation in the Middle East would stabilize.
由于伊朗战争推高了能源和物流成本,，影响了全球需求，3 月份, 该国 出口增速从 1 月至 2 月期间的 21.8% 大幅放缓至 2.5%,。
In March, the country的 export growth slowed to 2.5%, down sharply from 21.8% in the January-to-February period as the Iran war pushed up energy and logistics costs, weighing on global demand.
中国的工厂‑3月份出厂价格三年多来首次上涨,，这表明能源成本的飙升已开始渗透到制造业，并威胁到本已微薄的企业利润。
China的 factory‑gate prices rose in March for the first time in more than three years, signaling that a spike in energy costs has started seeping into the manufacturing sector and threatening already-thin corporate margins.
摩根士丹利首席中国经济学家 Robin Xing, 表示，由于 " 供应冲击导致总需求疲软……即使中国在某些行业获得市场份额,，这也可能会被整体出口市场较小的情况所抵消,"。
As "the supply shock feeds into weaker aggregate demand ... even if China gains market share in certain sectors, this may be offset by a smaller overall export market," said Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.
— CNBC的 Evelyn Cheng 对本报告做出了贡献。
— CNBC的 Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.
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