中国连续第11个月维持基准贷款利率不变,,政策制定者权衡中东战争对经济的影响、国内经济的强劲增长以及通货紧缩压力的消退,从而降低了北京采取行动的紧迫性。
China held its benchmark lending rates unchanged for an 11th straight month, keeping its powder dry as policymakers weigh the economic fallout from the Middle East war against resilient growth at home and fading deflationary pressure that has given Beijing less urgency to act.
中国人民银行周一维持贷款优惠利率, 或 LPR, 不变,,因为中东紧张局势升级导致全球油价飙升,推高能源价格,给增长前景蒙上阴影。
The People的 Bank of China kept the loan prime rate, or LPR, unchanged on Monday, as surging global oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions pushed up energy prices and clouded the growth outlook.
作为新增贷款,基准的一年期LPR,维持在3.0%,而作为抵押贷款利率,参考的五年期LPR,则维持在3.5%不变。
The one-year LPR, a benchmark for new loans, was kept at 3.0% while the five-year LPR, a reference for mortgage rates, was unchanged at 3.5%.
这一决定是在世界第二大经济体 第一季度增长 5%, 高于上一季度的 4.5%, 并达到全年目标范围的上限之后做出的。北京将2026年的增长目标下调至4.5%至5%,的范围,这是自20世纪90年代以来有记录以来最不雄心勃勃的目标。
The decision came after the world的 second-largest economy grew 5% in the first quarter, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter, and at the top end of its full-year target range. Beijing lowered its growth target for 2026 to a range of 4.5% to 5%, the least ambitious goal on record since the 1990s.
中国'的出厂价格三年多来首次上涨, 3月份同比上涨0.5%,,表明进口成本压力已开始渗透到经济中。 2 月份消费者通胀率创三年多来最大涨幅, 上升 1.3%,,之后 3 月份回落至 1%。
China的 factory-gate prices also rose for the first time in more than three years, climbing 0.5% in March from a year earlier, signaling that import-cost pressure has started seeping into the economy. Consumer inflation logged its biggest jump in more than three years, rising 1.3% in February, before easing to 1% in March.
2026 年初的乐观增长减轻了额外刺激, 的压力,促使经济学家推迟降息预期。
The upbeat growth at the start of 2026 has reduced pressure for additional stimulus, prompting economists to push back expectations for interest rate cuts.
瑞银证券 (UBS Securities) 首席中国经济学家 Yu Song, 表示,政策制定者可能会采取 " 观望" 的态度,,因为通胀上升降低了中国人民银行 在短期内降低政策利率或推出重大宽松政策的动力,。
Policymakers will likely take a "wait-and-see" approach, with rising inflation reducing the PBOC的 incentive to cut policy rates or roll out major easing in the near term, said Yu Song, chief China economist at UBS Securities.
"政府可能还需要时间来评估中东冲突中外部不确定性的影响,"宋补充道。
"The government may also need time to assess the impact of external uncertainties amid Middle East conflict," Song added.
中国人民银行表示,今年将维持"支持性"和"适度宽松"货币立场,以支撑经济增长,,同时保持货币稳定。
The PBOC said that it would maintain a "supportive" and "moderately loose" monetary stance this year to shore up growth, while keeping its currency stable.
上周在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织会议上, 中国 央行行长潘功胜警告称,地缘政治紧张局势加剧, 保护主义, 和贸易壁垒已经拖累全球经济增长并加剧金融市场波动。潘基文敦促深化国际政策协调,维护宏观经济和金融稳定。
Speaking at an International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington last week, China的 central bank governor Pan Gongsheng warned that rising geopolitical tensions, protectionism, and trade barriers have weighed on global growth and fuelled financial market volatility. Pan urged deeper international policy coordination to safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability.
兰佛'an, 中国的 财政部长, 也重申了北京的扩大内需、促进消费, 的号召,同时提供更多"全球公共产品" 以实现共同利益。
Lan Fo'an, China的 finance minister, also reiterated Beijing的 call to expand domestic demand and boost consumption, while providing more "global public goods" for shared benefits.
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