周一至周五, 10:00 - 11:00 SIN/HK | 0400 - 05:00 CET
Monday - Friday, 10:00 - 11:00 SIN/HK | 0400 - 05:00 CET
Hi, this is Evelyn, writing to you from Beijing. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what I'm seeing and hearing from local businesses.
随着人工智能占据越来越多的头条新闻, 他们错过了其他经济领域的哪些内容?
As AI captures more and more headlines, what are they missing about the rest of the economy?
大故事
The big story
Since the pandemic, the China story has diverged as tech advances grab attention, while traditional industries fade.
现在， 出现在官方经济数据中。人工智能相关芯片的需求正在推动出口和一定程度的通胀。但房地产市场的衰退已经加剧了,，而消费者仍然没有 花那么多钱。
Now that的 showing up in official economic data. Artificial intelligence-related chip demand is driving exports and some inflation. But the real estate slump has worsened, while consumers still aren't spending that much.
当投资者等待将于当地时间周二上午 10 点公布的 5 月, 零售销售和投资数据时，, 标准银行的 杰里米·史蒂文斯 (Jeremy Stevens) 询问 GDP 降级何时开始。
As investors await retail sales and investment figures for May, due out at 10 a.m. local time Tuesday, Standard Bank的 Jeremy Stevens asks when the GDP downgrades will start.
"We don't see a credible path to 4.6% in Q2:26," he said in a note Wednesday. "Instead, a test of the 4% threshold in Q2:26 seems the natural landing zone."
"The Iran war has smashed manufacturing margins already squeezed to five-year lows, dented consumer confidence, and fortified arguments favoring precautionary cash-hoarding," he said.史蒂文斯还警告说，由于进口成本上升和海外需求可能疲软，出口压力不断加大。
"The Iran war has smashed manufacturing margins already squeezed to five-year lows, dented consumer confidence, and fortified arguments favoring precautionary cash-hoarding," he said. Stevens also cautioned about rising pressure on exports due to growing import costs and potentially weaker demand abroad.
China typically reports second-quarter GDP in mid-July, and top leaders assess stimulus plans at a meeting later that month.
经济学家预计 5 月份的数据将证实经济普遍停滞。
Economists expect data for May will affirm broad stagnation.
Retail sales eked out a 0.2% gain in April — the slowest since Covid restrictions ended in December 2022 — and are forecast to slow to 0% in May from a year ago, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
Industrial output for May is expected to tick up to 4.3%, from 4.1% in April, the poll showed.
Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, is forecast to drop by 2% during the first five months of the year. That的 steeper than the 1.6% drop for the year as of April, with a real estate investment drag of 13.7%.
"Property remains the single biggest reason we are not more bullish" on China, KKR said in its mid-year outlook published last week. The large amount of unsold homes means it will take China longer than other countries to put the property slump behind it, the report said.
KKR estimates the real estate drag will narrow to 0.6 percentage points next year, from 1 point this year.
In 2027, digitalization will contribute 2.5 percentage points to China的 GDP, the report said. But it noted a modest 0.9-point contribution from retail and tourism won't be enough to prevent overall economic growth from slowing to 4.4%, down from 4.6% this year.
Elusive China consumer market
It的 a tough world for foreign companies to navigate.
Swiss-based sportswear company On, which trades as On Holding, has caught the athletic trend far better than other brands, and a forthcoming store in downtown Beijing is replacing a now-closed Nike location. But Lululemon isn't seeing such strong growth in China that it can offset weakness in North America.
Audi的 new brand — aimed at affluent young women with prominent Xiaohongshu ads and Olympic tennis "queen" Zheng Qinwen as a brand representative — sold just 900 cars in China in May, far behind Tesla, according to figures from China AutoHome.
相反，中国企业正在发挥更大的作用。
Chinese companies are instead playing a larger role.
Sportswear and equipment company Li-Ning signed NBA star Stephen Curry in a deal that is set to see him develop Curry-branded stores, the firm said earlier this month. Haagen Dazs的 new owners include a Chinese tea company, according to General Mills.
The rapidly growing story is that Chinese businesses, and increasingly their tech, are expanding overseas.
Home appliance giant Midea on June 9 announced a new tech solutions product to help Chinese companies manage an international factory network — with AI and automation software.
"Companies in technology, manufacturing, metals, and transport sectors are reporting strong overseas growth, with increasing profit that is often above average," Moody的 said in a report last week.
Back in Beijing, the mood has shifted into the summer holidays, as high schoolers completed the annual college entrance exam in early June. Similar to during the depths of the pandemic, people are venturing out on the streets again — not necessarily spending much, but enjoying the best air quality in recent years.
"一旦到了的夏天，我'm非常活跃,，但冬天我'm相当沮丧,"在电影和娱乐行业工作的全赵,通过CNBC的普通话翻译说道。 He said he'd been out until 4 or 5 a.m. recently. "附近有很多好玩的地方。"
"Once it的 summer I'm very active, but in winter I'm rather dispirited," Quan Zhao, who works in the film and entertainment industry, said via a CNBC translation of the Mandarin. He said he'd been out until 4 or 5 a.m. recently. "There are lots of fun places nearby."
需要知道
Need to know
Pentagon expands list of China military-linked firms to include Alibaba, Baidu
美国国防部将大量中国公司列入其认为向中国军队提供过援助的最新实体名单中。
The U.S. Defense Department included a slew of Chinese companies in an updated list of entities it believes have aided the Chinese military.
电动汽车巨头比亚迪预测中国汽车销量的80%很快将是电动汽车
Electric vehicle giant BYD predicts 80% of China car sales will soon be electric
Despite a recent slowdown in China的 electric car market, BYD的 Executive Vice President Stella Li told CNBC的 Arjun Kharpal that she expects EV penetration to grow thanks to new tech such as fast-charging.
中国初创企业的的困境暴露了北京的科技融资机器的裂痕
A Chinese start-up的 unfolding dilemma exposes cracks in Beijing的 tech funding machine
涉及中国扫地机器人公司 Dreame 的一系列迅速事件凸显了北京'在试图对抗美国科技主导地位时采取的强硬平衡举措。虽然国家投入大量资金支持中国'的科技雄心,，但并不总是有保护措施和市场力量来防止广泛的不当配置。
The rapid succession of events involving Chinese robot vacuum company Dreame underscore Beijing的 tough balancing act in trying to rival U.S. tech dominance. While the state pours in money to support China的 tech ambitions, there are not always the guardrails and market forces to prevent widespread misallocation.
Coming up
6月16:零售额, 5月工业生产和投资数据
June 16: Retail sales, industrial production and investment data for May
June 19: Mainland China and Hong Kong stock exchanges closed for holiday
June 22-26: China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) is held in Beijing
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