美国投资巨头 KKR 预计人工智能驱动的生产力繁荣才刚刚开始,，但表示这可能意味着增长仅集中在少数几个行业。
U.S.-based investment giant KKR expects the AI-driven productivity boom is only just getting started, but said it could mean growth is concentrated in just a few sectors.
That的 according to the firm的 mid-year report distributed Thursday.
全球宏观和资产配置主管兼 KKR 资产负债表首席信息官 Henry H. McVey, 写道，虽然人工智能驱动的生产率提升将在未来几年发挥作用, "，但抵消的是，日益激烈的战略竞争可能会使经济增长更加集中在更少的行业，, 有时, 比我们自 1870 年代第二次工业革命开始以来所见过的任何情况都更加极端,"。
While AI-driven productivity gains will play out in coming years, "the offset is that intensifying strategic competition will likely make economic growth more concentrated across fewer industries and, at times, more extreme than anything we have seen since the start of the second industrial revolution in the 1870s," wrote Henry H. McVey, head of global macro and asset allocation and CIO of KKR balance sheet.
麦克维描述了这样一种投资格局：经济和市场的某些部分"饥饿,"，而其他部分则"富裕。他指出，"技术,高端服务和政府支出是"高度集中"增长,的领域。
McVey described an investing landscape where some parts of the economy and markets are "starved," while others are "flush." Technology, high-end services and government spending are areas of "enormously concentrated" growth, he noted.
KKR 表示，从更广泛的长期趋势来看，国防和电力行业是最有可能的赢家。 "报告称，尽管投入成本较高,"，各国和各行业的供应链安全性和弹性仍受到广泛且日益关注。,。
KKR said the defense and power sectors are the most likely winners when it looked at broader long-term trends. "There is a broad-based and growing focus on the security and resiliency of supply chains across nations and industries, despite higher costs for inputs," the report said.
以下是 McVey 为投资者提供的三个其他关键要点:
Here are three of McVey的 other key takeaways for investors:
亚洲将继续在公共和私人市场表现出色
Asia will continue to outperform in public and private markets
"我们认为日本和韩国的价格仍然便宜,，因为 2026 年和 2027 年的盈利可能会出现意外增长," McVey 表示。他指出，中国房地产拖累是 KKR 对中国资产仍不太乐观的主要原因。
"We think Japan and Korea still look cheap, as earnings are likely to surprise on the upside in both 2026 and 2027," McVey said. He noted China的 property drag is the main reason KKR still isn't overly optimistic on the country的 assets.
人民币走强
Chinese yuan strengthens
然而, KKR 预测，随着美元兑美元见顶,，人民币将走强，并预计到 2027 年人民币兑美元汇率约为 6.5 元。
However, KKR forecasts the Chinese currency will strengthen as the U.S. dollar peaks, with a forecast of about 6.5 yuan per greenback by 2027.
Wheat
"农业越来越多地加入能源安全,国防,和关键矿产作为战略,政策支持部门，可能会吸引持续投资,"麦克维表示,指出，美国农业部预测2026年至2027年美国小麦产量将是1972年以来的最低水平,，价格将升至三年高点。
"Agriculture is increasingly joining energy security, defense, and critical minerals as a strategic, policy-backed sector likely to attract sustained investment," McVey said, noting the USDA forecasts U.S. wheat production for 2026 to 2027 will be the lowest since 1972, with prices rising to three-year highs.
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