由于伊朗战争和人工智能投资热潮,导致原材料成本飙升，中国'的批发价格在5月份以近四年来最快的速度上涨,，而消费者通胀则低于预期。
China的 wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace in nearly four years in May, driven by surging raw material costs due to the Iran war and an artificial intelligence investment boom, while consumer inflation came in below estimates.
根据国家统计局周三公布的数据，生产者价格指数同比上涨 3.9%,，创 2022 年 7 月以来最高,，超过经济学家 预测的 3.8%,，也超过 4 月份, 的 2.8%。
The producer price index jumped 3.9% from a year ago, the highest since July 2022, topping economists forecast of 3.8%, and outpacing 2.8% in April, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.
由于中东冲突引发的投入成本飙升使经济摆脱了数十年来最长的通缩趋势，批发价格在三月份恢复增长。伊朗战争阻碍了霍尔木兹海峡, 的交通，扰乱了能源和原材料流动。
Wholesale prices returned to growth in March as the input cost surge stemming from the Middle East conflict lifted the economy out of its longest deflationary streak in decades. The Iran war has throttled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting energy and raw material flows.
5 月份工厂 燃料和动力采购价格同比上涨 10%,，涨幅较 4 月份的 4.4% 有所扩大。有色金属材料和电线成本飙升22%。
Factories purchasing prices for fuel and power climbed 10% year on year in May, widening from 4.4% in April. Costs for non-ferrous metal materials and wires surged 22%.
除了商品成本上升, 批发价格也因对人工智能计算能力不断增长的需求, 推高科技设备和半导体的价格而上涨。
Aside from higher commodity costs, wholesale prices were also lifted by a growing demand for artificial intelligence computing power, pushing up prices for tech equipment and semiconductors.
"加速转向电气化,人工智能采用的深化和计算需求的激增推高了有色金属,电机和计算机硬件的价格,"国家统计局,首席统计师董丽娟,在周三的一份声明中表示。有色金属采矿业同比增长 36.5%,，其中冶炼业同比增长 24%。
"The accelerating shift to electrification, deepening AI adoption and surging computing demand pushed up prices across non-ferrous metals, electrical machinery and computer hardware," Dong Lijuan, chief statistician at NBS, said in a statement Wednesday. Non-ferrous metal mining led gains at 36.5% year on year, with smelting up 24%.
5 月份消费者价格较上年同期上涨 1.2%, 缺少经济学家 路透社调查中 1.3% 增长的预期。环比, 消费者通胀较 4 月份下降 0.1%。消费者汽油价格同比上涨 23.5%。
Consumer prices rose 1.2% in May from a year earlier, missing economists estimates of 1.3% growth in a Reuters poll. On a month-on-month basis, consumer inflation dropped 0.1% from April. Gasoline prices for consumers rose 23.5% from a year earlier.
5 月份核心消费者物价指数,（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格,）同比增长 1.1%,，较 4 月份的 1.2% 增幅略有下降。食品价格同比下降 1.7%。
Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, grew 1.1% in May from a year earlier, edging down from the 1.2% increase in April. Food prices declined 1.7% from a year earlier.
"能源成本上升带来的通胀压力[]消费领域的通胀压力并不强劲,，因为内需依然疲弱,"张志伟, Pinpoint资产管理公司总裁兼首席经济学家表示。
"The inflationary pressure [from higher energy costs] in the consumer sector is not strong, as domestic demand remains weak," said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
沪深300指数下跌约1%，恒生指数下跌0.8%。 LSEG 数据显示，10 年期中国政府债券的收益率几乎没有变化，为 1.740%,。
CSI 300 index fell around 1% while the Hang Seng Index lost 0.8%. Yield on the 10-year Chinese government bond was little changed at 1.740%, LSEG data showed.
中国通过战略石油库存和多元化的可再生能源组合缓解了最严重的能源冲击。根据 Wind Information, 汇编的官方海关数据，自伊朗战争, 爆发以来，世界 最大的石油进口国已将原油进口量削减了近 20%，限制了全球油价的进一步走高。
China has cushioned the worst of the energy shock through its strategic oil stockpiles and a diversified mix of renewable energy sources. The world的 largest oil importer has trimmed its crude imports by nearly 20% since the outbreak of the Iran war, according to official customs data compiled by Wind Information, capping global oil prices from trading even higher.
经济学家警告说，供应驱动的通货再膨胀风险会进一步给企业利润率带来压力27，并抑制家庭消费需求。
Economists have warned that supply-driven reflation risks further pressuring companies profit margins and dampening household consumption demand.
"我们'看到的是中国工厂受到双方的挤压,"交易平台eToro亚太区首席分析师Josh Gilbert,表示。公司面临着成本上升的问题，但由于需求疲软和供应过剩限制了消费者通胀,，公司缺乏定价能力来将成本转嫁到, 吉尔伯特补充道。
"What we're seeing is Chinese factories being squeezed from both sides," said Josh Gilbert, lead analyst for APAC at trading platform eToro. Companies face rising costs but lack pricing power to pass them on, as weak demand and oversupply cap consumer inflation, Gilbert added.
"直到国内需求恢复,，工厂利润率的挤压才会从这里开始,"吉尔伯特说。
"Until domestic demand recovers, the squeeze on factory margins only builds from here," Gilbert said.
中国 5 月份出口增长好于预期, 以美元计算，同比增长 19.4%, 为三个月来最大增幅, 受到可再生能源和人工智能相关商品需求飙升的支撑。
China的 export growth held up better than expected in May, growing 19.4% from a year earlier in U.S. dollar terms, the largest jump in three months, supported by soaring demand for renewable and AI-related goods.
消费者需求受到拖累
Consumer demand drags
汇丰银行, 首席亚洲经济学家 Frederic Neumann, 表示，中国消费者 " 对辛苦赚来的人民币保持着严格的控制,"，因为在经济需要寻找出口以外的新增长动力之际，高家庭储蓄率抑制了支出。
Consumers in China are "keeping a tight fist around their hard-earned renminbi," said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Bank, as the high household saving rate depressed spending at a time when the economy needs to find new drivers of growth besides exports.
Ralph Lauren 和 LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, 等全球奢侈品牌, 的最新财报表明，在近年来受到折扣侵蚀的市场中，人们对高端美容和时尚产品的需求正在恢复。
Latest earnings from global luxury brands, such as Ralph Lauren and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, indicated recovering appetite for high-end beauty and fashion products in a market plagued by margin-eroding discounts in recent years.
然而，经济学家,警告称，近期科技驱动的股市上涨带来的财富效应以及去年'的低基数—推动的高端复苏—的早期迹象可能很脆弱。
Economists, however, cautioned that the early signs of high-end revival — boosted by wealth effect from recent tech-driven equity market rally and last year的 low base — may prove fragile.
"将近期的改善概括为消费者信心广泛复苏的证据还为时过早,"表示，在房地产市场持续低迷和就业市场黯淡的情况下，Evercore ISI,首席中国经济学家Neo Wang,表示。
"It would be premature to generalize the recent improvement as evidence of a broad-based recovery in consumer sentiment," said Neo Wang, lead China economist at Evercore ISI, amid a persisting property market slump and bleak jobs market.
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