China的 trade growth held up better than expected in May, as surging AI-related exports helped buffer the economy against disruption from the Iran war, with U.S.-bound shipment logging the strongest jump in five years.
Overall exports rose 19.4% from a year earlier in U.S. dollar value terms, customs data showed Tuesday, accelerating from the 14.1% gain in April. Economists polled by Reuters had pegged growth at 15%.
"The war is boosting demand for green exports, such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar products, and AI-related technology goods," said Sheana Yue, senior economist at Oxford Economics, expecting the outperformance in high-tech product export growth to persist.
Overall exports of integrated circuits soared 110% in terms of value from a year earlier, in part driven by unit price surges. Outbound shipment of high-tech goods surged 50% in May from a year ago, while imports jumped 47% by value.
Shipments to the U.S. soared nearly 35.4% in May from a year earlier, the highest growth since March 2021, according to Wind Information, extending a rebound following a long streak of double-digit declines for the most of last year, pressured by President Donald Trump的 tariffs.
China的 tariff disadvantage vis-à-vis Southeast Asia nations has also narrowed, providing a tailwind for exports, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Any additional tariffs imposed on Chinese goods under Trump的 Section 301 review will likely be smaller than those facing rival exporters, giving Chinese manufacturers a further competitive edge, Xu added.
进口增长势头继续增强, 5 月份扩大27.4%, 较4 月份的25.3% 增幅有所回升, 超过经济学家 预测的25% 增长。 That boosted the trade surplus to $105.4 billion in May.
Import growth momentum continued to build, expanding 27.4% in May, picking up from the 25.3% rise in April, beating economists forecast for a 25% growth. That boosted the trade surplus to $105.4 billion in May.
In the first five months this year, China的 import growth has accelerated sharply, rising 24.5% from a year earlier, outpacing 15.5% export gains over the same period, narrowing the trade surplus from a year earlier.
根据美国银行全球研究部的经济学家的说法，进口激增主要是由投入成本上升推动的，并且主要集中在特定类别,，特别是半导体芯片和黄金,，但"很难说是再平衡的迹象,"。
The import surge has largely been driven by higher input costs and narrowly concentrated in select categories, particularly semiconductor chips and gold, but "hardly a sign of rebalancing," according to economists at Bank of America Global Research.
"由于整体需求疲软和持续的国内替代,真正的贸易再平衡仍然遥远,"美国银行经济学家表示,补充说，出口繁荣降低了北京'采取有意义的政策刺激的紧迫性。
"With weak overall demand and ongoing domestic substitution, genuine trade rebalancing remains distant," BofA economists said, adding that the export boom has reduced Beijing的 urgency for meaningful policy stimulus.
China的 economy has shown signs of faltering following a strong first-quarter. Growth slowed across the board in April, with industrial production and retail sales posting their weakest gains in years. In May, the official gauge on manufacturing activity also slowed to 50, the threshold separating expansion from contraction.
Stockpiling and AI boost
到目前为止，中国出口商已经经受住了中东冲突,的影响，海外买家急于在能源成本进一步攀升之前锁定供应。但经济学家警告称，一旦海外囤货势头消退，这种顺风可能是短暂的—, 国内消费低迷将无法填补缺口。
Chinese exporters have so far weathered the fallout from the Middle East conflict, with overseas buyers rushing to lock in supplies before energy costs climb further. But economists have warned the tailwind may be short-lived — once overseas stockpiling momentum fades, sluggish domestic consumption will be unable to fill the gap.
"We expect the AI boom to support production and trade," said Xiangrong Yu, chief China economist at Citi Bank, as higher prices for tech and semiconductor goods boost headline growth. But "domestic demand could show continued weakness," Yu added.
Yu anticipates retail sales growth, a gauge on consumption, may fall to zero in May on fading impact from trade-in subsidies, further slowing from the three-year low of 0.2% growth in April.
就业市场持续疲软也加剧了消费者支出的压力。 "尽管出口猛增,，制造业就业岗位数量继续萎缩," 汇丰银行, 首席亚洲经济学家 Frederic Neumann, 表示，因为自动化带来的生产率提高减少了对工人的需求。
A persistently weak jobs market has also compounded the pressure on consumer spending. "Despite soaring exports, the number of manufacturing jobs continues to contract," said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Bank, as productivity gains from automation reduce demand for workers.
Chinese yuan的 sustained strength this year has led to some pressure on the country的 exporters — who have amassed large dollar holdings over the years — as mounting foreign-exchange losses have started to weigh on profits.
The offshore yuan has strengthened 2.8% this year to 6.7802 against the U.S. dollar while the onshore yuan appreciated 3% to 6.7787, according to LSEG data.周二贸易数据公布后，两者均无太大动静。沪深300指数上涨0.6%。
The offshore yuan has strengthened 2.8% this year to 6.7802 against the U.S. dollar while the onshore yuan appreciated 3% to 6.7787, according to LSEG data. Both were little moved after the release of Tuesday trade data. The CSI 300 index rose 0.6%.
增长不平衡
Uneven growth
中国'的经济已发展成为经济学家所谓的"K-速度"增长模式,，制造业和出口部门蓬勃发展，与房地产市场和消费者支出的持续疲软形成鲜明对比。
China的 economy has developed into what economists called "K-speed" growth paradigm, with booming manufacturing and export sectors contrasting persistent weakness in property markets and consumer spending.
在全球对人工智能技术和可再生能源产品强劲需求的推动下，出口仍然是世界'第二大经济体,的亮点。
Exports have remained the bright spot for the world的 second-largest economy, driven by robust global demand for AI technology and renewable-energy products.
While demand remains weak, rising commodity costs from disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have helped to alleviate deflationary pressures that have plagued Chinese economy for years.
根据路透社的调查，经济学家预计周三, 的该国生产者通胀, 将在 5 月份加速至 3.8%,，这是近四年来的最高水平,，因为制造商吸收了更高的投入成本,。消费者通胀预计将小幅上升 1.3%。
Economists expect the country的 producer inflation, due Wednesday, to accelerate to 3.8% in May, the strongest level in nearly four years, as manufacturers absorb the higher input costs, according to a Reuters poll. Consumer inflation is expected to rise by a modest 1.3%.
China, holding roughly 15% of global oil stocks before the war broke out, could run through its oil reserves by late October if forced to draw down inventories to cover any supply shortfall, according to Fitch Ratings.
"Though China的 stable power supply could provide a buffer, the supply shock as a result of the energy crisis will still inflict pain on China的 economy via shortages and higher prices," said Jing Wang, China Economist at Nomura.
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