尽管中东战争颠覆了全球石油市场并导致原材料成本飙升，但中国的工业企业的利润在3月份,以六个月来最快的速度增长。
Profits at China的 industrial firms grew at their fastest pace in six months in March, even as the Middle East war upended global oil markets and sent raw material costs soaring.
3月份工业利润同比猛增15.8%,，创去年9月以来最大增幅, 国家统计局周一公布的数据显示,今年前两个月的增幅为15.2%。
Industrial profits jumped 15.8% from a year earlier in March, the sharpest growth since September last year, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Monday, quickening from the 15.2% surge in the first two months of this year.
今年前三个月, 企业利润增长了 15.5%,，这是自 2017 年, 以来开年最快的一年，除非 2021 年出现疫情驱动的飙升。
In the first three months this year, enterprise profits rose 15.5%, the fastest start to a year since 2017, barring the pandemic-driven spike in 2021.
国家统计局,首席统计师于卫宁,强调，装备制造业和高技术制造业,利润大幅增长，一季度利润分别增长21%和47.4%,。
Yu Weining, chief statistician at NBS, highlighted surging profits in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors, which saw profits soar 21% and 47.4% in the first quarter, respectively.
今年前三个月，人工智能和半导体的繁荣带动了多个子行业的利润大幅增长。光纤制造商的利润同比猛增336.8%,，而光电和显示设备制造商的利润分别增长43% 和36.3%,。
The artificial intelligence and semiconductor boom drove outsized profit growth across several subsectors in the first three months of the year. Profits for optical fiber makers surged 336.8% from a year earlier, while manufacturers for optoelectronics and display devices posted gains of 43% and 36.3%, respectively.
阅读更多中国新闻
Read more China news
对智能产品的需求也提升了新兴行业,的盈利，其中包括利润增长53.8%的无人机制造商,和其他智能消费设备制造商。
Demand for intelligent products also lifted earnings across emerging industries, including drone manufacturers with a 53.8% profit gain, and other intelligent consumer device makers.
由于炼油厂扭亏为盈，第一季度原材料生产商的盈利同比增长 77.9%,。国家统计局数据显示，航空航天,、新能源,、新一代信息技术,等一批战略性新兴产业,也带动有色金属企业,利润大幅增长116.7%。
Earnings for raw material producers rose 77.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier, as oil refineries swung to a profit. A slew of strategic emerging industries, such as aerospace, new energy, and next-generation information technology, also drove a 116.7% surge in profits at non-ferrous metal firms, according to NBS data.
此次上涨是在 2025 年进入稳定期之后出现的，当时工业企业 盈利在连续三年年度下降后勉强实现了 0.6% 的小幅增长。
The upswing follows a period of stabilization in 2025 when industrial companies earnings eked out a modest 0.6% growth after three consecutive years of annual declines.
Pinpoint Asset Management 总裁兼首席经济学家张志伟, 表示，制造商盈利能力的提高在一定程度上得益于强劲的出口,。第一季度, 中国的出口以美元计算同比增长 14.7%,，这是 2022 年初以来的最快增速。
The improved profitability for manufacturers was in part underpinned by robust exports, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. In the first quarter, China的 exports grew 14.7% from a year earlier in U.S. dollars, the fastest pace since early 2022.
尽管如此，中东冲突仍将给第二季度的经济带来压力,，因为能源价格上涨和外部需求疲软对出口商构成越来越大的阻力, 张说。
The Middle East conflict will nonetheless weigh on the economy in the second quarter, as higher energy prices and weakening external demand pose a growing headwind for exporters, Zhang said.
能源冲击中的相对弹性
Relative resilience amid energy shock
尽管油价上涨开始渗透到全球经济,，推高了进口成本，并威胁到依赖某些原材料的制造商的利润，但利润仍在飙升。
The soaring profits came even as rising oil prices started seeping into the global economy, pushing up import costs and threatening to squeeze margins for manufacturers dependent on certain raw materials.
自 2 月底美以对伊朗发动袭击以来，布伦特原油价格已飙升约 48%,，推高了全球供应链中化学品, 纤维和塑料的成本。
Brent crude oil prices have soared about 48% since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began at the end of February, driving up costs for chemicals, fibers and plastics across the global supply chain.
摩根士丹利首席中国经济学家 Robin Xing, 表示，中国'的能源结构,主要以煤炭和可再生能源,为主，为应对油价波动,提供了结构性缓冲。
China的 energy mix, heavily anchored in coal and renewables, has provided a structural buffer against oil price volatility, according to Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.
在对 32 个行业, 的调查中，大约 70% 的公司表示，与全球同行相比，" 成本冲击较小，生产中断较少", Xing 在周一的一份报告中表示。
In a survey of 32 sectors, around 70% of companies indicated "smaller cost shocks and fewer production disruptions" than their global peers, Xing said in a note Monday.
"中国处于相对较好的地位，在规模较大但不是极端的能源冲击下可能会获得部分出口市场份额的收益," Xing 表示。
"China is relatively better positioned and may capture pockets of export market-share gains under a sizeable but not extreme energy shock," Xing said.
尽管如此，, 经济并未完全免受更广泛影响,，因为全球需求放缓可能会限制其出口势头,，而能源进口成本上升则进一步挤压供应链下游的利润。
That said, the economy is not fully insulated from the broader fallout, as slowing global demand could cap its export momentum, while higher energy import costs squeeze margins further down the supply chain.
由于房地产市场长期低迷，就业市场低迷，内需,承压，各行业价格战加剧，企业'利润已面临压力,。
Enterprises profits were already under strain, as a prolonged property market downturn and a gloomy job market pressured domestic demand, fueling price wars across sectors.
近期金属价格的上涨以及北京27'控制过剩产能和遏制恶性竞争的努力有助于缓解经济的通货紧缩压力。
The recent rally in metal prices and Beijing的 effort to rein in excess production capacity and curb cutthroat competition have helped ease deflationary pressure in the economy.
在油价上涨的推动下，中国'的生产者价格增长在3月份,转为正值,，标志着三年多来的首次扩张，并结束了几十年来最长的通货紧缩趋势。
China的 producer price growth turned positive in March, driven by higher oil prices, marking the first expansion in more than three years and ending the longest deflationary streak in decades.
摩根士丹利预计，温和的通胀效应将推动中国的 生产者价格指数继去年下降 2.6% 之后今年上涨 1.2%,。与去年持平相比，今年消费者价格预计将上涨 0.8%,。
Morgan Stanley expects the modest inflationary effect to push China的 producer price index 1.2% higher this year, after a 2.6% decline last year. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.8% this year, compared with a flat reading last year.
伊朗石油和海上油轮上的大量陆上库存也为世界最大进口国提供了一些缓冲。特朗普政府的 最近几周对霍尔木兹海峡进行海上封锁,，但是, 可能会改变北京的 的计算,，因为在战争爆发前，中国的 大约一半的石油进口是通过水路运输的。
Large onshore inventories of Iranian oil and crude on tankers at sea have also provided some cushion for the world的 biggest importer. The Trump administration的 naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, however, could alter Beijing的 calculus, with roughly half of China的 oil imports transiting the waterway before the war broke out.
特朗普政府周五表示，已对中国一家独立"teapot"炼油厂实施制裁，因为该炼油厂购买了价值数十亿美元'的伊朗石油,，这可能会损害占中国炼油厂产能四分之一的关键能源。
The Trump administration said on Friday it had imposed sanctions on an independent "teapot" refinery in China for buying billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil, potentially harming a key energy source that accounts for a quarter of Chinese refinery capacity.
— CNBC的 Evelyn Cheng 对本报告做出了贡献。
— CNBC的 Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.
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